Arjun Panickssery Storing Pages and stuff

Part 1: Our Thinking

Near and Far

  1. Abstract/Distant Future Bias
  2. Abstractly Ideal, Concretely Selfish
  3. We Add Near, Average Far
  4. Why We Don’t Know What We Want
  5. We See the Sacred from Afar, to See It Together
  6. The Future Seems Shiny
  7. Doubting My Far Mind

Disagreement

  1. Beware the Inside View
  2. Are Meta Views Outside Views?
  3. Disagreement Is Near-Far Bias
  4. Others’ Views Are Detail
  5. Why Be Contrarian?
  6. On Disagreement, Again
  7. Rationality Requires Common Priors
  8. Might Disagreement Fade Like Violence?

Biases

  1. Reject Random Beliefs
  2. Chase Your Reading
  3. Against Free Thinkers
  4. Eventual Futures
  5. Seen vs. Unseen Biases
  6. Law as No-Bias Theatre
  7. Benefit of Doubt = Bias

Part 2: Our Motives

Signaling

  1. Decision Theory Remains Neglected
  2. What Function Music?
  3. Politics isn’t about Policy
  4. Views Aren’t About Sights
  5. Why Do Bets Look Bad?
  6. Homo Hypocritus
  7. Resolving Your Hypocrisy
  8. Errors, Lies, and Self-Deception

Norms

  1. Enforce Common Norms On Elites
  2. Identity Norms
  3. Exclusion As A Substitute For Norms, Law, & Governance
  4. How Idealists Aid Cheaters
  5. Beware Mob War Strategy
  6. Automatic Norms
  7. 10 Implications of Automatic Norms
  8. Automatic Norm Lessons
  9. Automatic Norms in Academia

Fiction

  1. Plot Holes & Blame Holes
  2. Fairy Tales Were Cynical
  3. Why Fiction Lies
  4. Biases Of Fiction
  5. Why We Fight Over Fiction
  6. Stories Are Like Religion
  7. More Stories As Religion

The Dreamtime

  1. This is the Dream Time
  2. DreamTime
  3. Dreamtime Social Games
  4. We Moderns Are Status-Drunk
  5. Earth: A Status Report
  6. On Teen Angst

Part 3: Our Institutions

Prediction Markets

  1. Prediction Markets “Fail” To Moloch
  2. Seeking Robust Credible Expertise Buyers
  3. Prediction Markets Need Trial and Error
  4. New-Hire Prediction Markets
  5. Shoulda-Listened Futures
  6. Brand Truth Narrowly

Academia

  1. Fixing Academia Via Prediction Markets
  2. Intellectual Prestige Futures
  3. Academic Stats Prediction Markets
  4. How To Fund Prestige Science

Medicine

  1. Medical Doubts OpEd
  2. Medical Market Failures

Paternalism

  1. Paternalism Is About Status
  2. Rulesy Folks Push Paternalism
  3. Universal Basic Dorms

Law

  1. Elites Must Rule
  2. Status App Concept
  3. Our Prestige Obsession
  4. Yay Stability Rents
  5. Conditional Harberger Tax Games
  6. Reliable Private-Enough Physical Identity
  7. Freedom Isn’t Free
  8. Quality Regs Say ‘High Is Good’
  9. Socialism: A Gift You’d Exchange?
  10. Vouch For Pandemic Passports
  11. Can We Tame Political Minds?
  12. Consider Reparations
  13. Regulating Infinity
  14. Privately Enforced & Punished Crime
  15. Fine Grain Futarchy Zoning Via Harberger Taxes

Part 4: Our Past

Farmers and Foragers

  1. Fear Made Farmers
  2. Forage vs Farm Future
  3. Two Types of People
  4. Forager v Farmer, Elaborated
  5. Rome As Semi-Foragers
  6. Self-Control Is Slavery
  7. School Is To Submit
  8. Why Grievances Grow
  9. The World Forager Elite

History as Exponential Modes

  1. The Great Cycle Rule
  2. The Labor-From-Factories Explosion
  3. Lost Advanced Civilizations

The Great Filter

  1. Try-Try or Try-Once Great Filter?
  2. Great Filter with Set-Backs, Dead-Ends
  3. Seeing ANYTHING Other Than Huge-Civ Is Bad News
  4. Our Level in the Great Filter
  5. At Least Two Filters
  6. Fertility: The Big Problem

Part 5: Our Future

Aliens

  1. Humans Are Early
  2. An Alien War Nightmare
  3. Non-Grabby Legacies
  4. Why We Can’t See Grabby Aliens
  5. Beware General Visible Prey
  6. If The Future Is Big

UFOs

  1. UFOs – What The Hell?
  2. Our Alien Stalkers
  3. On UFOs-As-Aliens Priors
  4. UFOs Show Govt. Competence As Either Surprisingly High Or Low
  5. My Awkward Inference
  6. UFO Stylized Social Facts
  7. Explaining Stylized UFO Facts
  8. Non-UFO Local Alien Clues
  9. UFOs and Status

The Age of Em

  1. Why Age of Em Will Happen
  2. How To Not Die (Soon)
  3. How Does Brain Code Differ?
  4. Progeny Probabilities: Souls, Ems, Quantum
  5. Em Redistribution

Artificial Intelligence

  1. A.I. Old-Timers
  2. How Lumpy AI Services?
  3. A History Of Foom
  4. I Still Don’t Get Foom
  5. Foom Justifies AI Risk Efforts Now
  6. Is The City-ularity Near?
  7. The Betterness Explosion
  8. An Outside View of AI Control
  9. AI Risk, Again